Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

35
signals scored
80%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

35 signals opened in the last 12 months · Micro Cap · 5–15% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

18 signals

100%
5%
16d median
94%
10%
31d median
94%
15%
38d median
94%
20%
38d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

9 signals

100%
5%
5d median
89%
10%
51d median
89%
15%
69d median
89%
20%
69d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
35d median
100%
10%
37d median
100%
15%
42d median
100%
20%
42d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

16 signals

56%
5%
2d median
44%
10%
16d median
31%
15%
31d median
31%
20%
31d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.