Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

435
signals scored
90.3%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

435 signals opened in the last 24 months · Mega Cap · 5–15% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

5 signals

100%
5%
115d median
80%
10%
210d median
80%
15%
284d median
60%
20%
292d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

2 signals

100%
5%
26d median
100%
10%
47d median
100%
15%
49d median
0%
20%
–

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

127 signals

94%
5%
12d median
92%
10%
32d median
90%
15%
56d median
88%
20%
76d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

106 signals

94%
5%
17d median
91%
10%
33d median
88%
15%
50d median
87%
20%
65d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

290 signals

93%
5%
19d median
87%
10%
49d median
79%
15%
67d median
74%
20%
93d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

380 signals

93%
5%
20d median
85%
10%
49d median
78%
15%
67d median
73%
20%
87d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

349 signals

93%
5%
19d median
85%
10%
49d median
77%
15%
63d median
72%
20%
85d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

364 signals

92%
5%
21d median
85%
10%
51d median
77%
15%
70d median
73%
20%
93d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

363 signals

92%
5%
20d median
84%
10%
50d median
76%
15%
67d median
71%
20%
88d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

134 signals

91%
5%
14d median
84%
10%
45d median
78%
15%
52d median
75%
20%
67d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

356 signals

91%
5%
20d median
83%
10%
50d median
76%
15%
67d median
72%
20%
88d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

286 signals

91%
5%
21d median
82%
10%
52d median
74%
15%
67d median
68%
20%
88d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

29 signals

66%
5%
26d median
45%
10%
90d median
31%
15%
108d median
17%
20%
288d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.