Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

960
signals scored
65.7%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

960 signals opened in the last 6 months · Large Cap · 5–15% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

144 signals

81%
5%
12d median
61%
10%
22d median
44%
15%
34d median
31%
20%
46d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

46 signals

80%
5%
8d median
61%
10%
17d median
43%
15%
29d median
33%
20%
38d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

119 signals

76%
5%
17d median
63%
10%
40d median
50%
15%
50d median
39%
20%
60d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

66 signals

73%
5%
10d median
58%
10%
23d median
52%
15%
35d median
39%
20%
44d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

47 signals

72%
5%
14d median
53%
10%
23d median
32%
15%
24d median
23%
20%
28d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

213 signals

70%
5%
11d median
55%
10%
23d median
47%
15%
34d median
36%
20%
49d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

6 signals

67%
5%
29d median
17%
10%
47d median
17%
15%
47d median
0%
20%
–

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

272 signals

67%
5%
11d median
51%
10%
28d median
41%
15%
42d median
33%
20%
54d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

471 signals

66%
5%
15d median
53%
10%
33d median
41%
15%
44d median
30%
20%
52d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

495 signals

64%
5%
15d median
50%
10%
31d median
39%
15%
42d median
28%
20%
50d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

236 signals

64%
5%
16d median
48%
10%
44d median
39%
15%
59d median
29%
20%
70d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

364 signals

64%
5%
15d median
48%
10%
32d median
37%
15%
47d median
27%
20%
58d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

268 signals

59%
5%
20d median
46%
10%
41d median
34%
15%
54d median
23%
20%
70d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.