Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

1,771
signals scored
75.4%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

1,771 signals opened in the last 12 months · Large Cap · 5–15% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

64 signals

83%
5%
12d median
63%
10%
22d median
48%
15%
40d median
36%
20%
48d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

224 signals

82%
5%
15d median
64%
10%
28d median
49%
15%
39d median
33%
20%
49d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

84 signals

79%
5%
20d median
64%
10%
29d median
50%
15%
38d median
43%
20%
57d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

161 signals

78%
5%
10d median
65%
10%
23d median
54%
15%
34d median
43%
20%
43d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

252 signals

77%
5%
17d median
64%
10%
40d median
51%
15%
52d median
39%
20%
58d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

499 signals

76%
5%
15d median
61%
10%
35d median
50%
15%
50d median
41%
20%
58d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

927 signals

75%
5%
19d median
62%
10%
42d median
50%
15%
57d median
38%
20%
71d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

392 signals

75%
5%
15d median
63%
10%
31d median
53%
15%
44d median
43%
20%
55d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

458 signals

74%
5%
20d median
59%
10%
48d median
47%
15%
63d median
34%
20%
73d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

952 signals

74%
5%
17d median
61%
10%
39d median
48%
15%
52d median
38%
20%
64d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

765 signals

73%
5%
17d median
58%
10%
42d median
44%
15%
58d median
32%
20%
71d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

532 signals

72%
5%
22d median
59%
10%
50d median
44%
15%
69d median
32%
20%
79d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

8 signals

63%
5%
15d median
25%
10%
26d median
13%
15%
47d median
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.