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Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

145
signals scored
46.2%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

Short term Long term
Opened
1M 3M 6M 12M 24M All time
Size
All Mega Cap Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Micro Cap
From what funds paid
Any 5–15% 20–30% 35–50%

145 signals opened in the last 3 months · Small Cap · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

36 signals

69%
5%
4d median
53%
10%
10d median
44%
15%
20d median
42%
20%
28d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

9 signals

67%
5%
8d median
67%
10%
13d median
56%
15%
16d median
56%
20%
16d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

28 signals

61%
5%
4d median
46%
10%
9d median
43%
15%
20d median
39%
20%
28d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

13 signals

38%
5%
3d median
8%
10%
7d median
8%
15%
8d median
0%
20%
–

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

87 signals

36%
5%
5d median
24%
10%
6d median
20%
15%
11d median
16%
20%
12d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

9 signals

33%
5%
2d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

2 signals

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.