Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

1,005
signals scored
85.7%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

1,005 signals opened in the last 24 months · Small Cap · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

6 signals

100%
5%
15d median
83%
10%
22d median
67%
15%
19d median
50%
20%
14d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

381 signals

90%
5%
8d median
81%
10%
18d median
73%
15%
28d median
64%
20%
48d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

232 signals

89%
5%
8d median
81%
10%
17d median
75%
15%
29d median
67%
20%
44d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

570 signals

84%
5%
7d median
78%
10%
20d median
74%
15%
33d median
69%
20%
49d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

21 signals

81%
5%
8d median
76%
10%
10d median
71%
15%
21d median
67%
20%
22d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

29 signals

76%
5%
5d median
62%
10%
8d median
55%
15%
50d median
52%
20%
85d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

43 signals

74%
5%
8d median
58%
10%
9d median
51%
15%
42d median
42%
20%
54d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

8 signals

63%
5%
6d median
38%
10%
16d median
38%
15%
16d median
38%
20%
27d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

3 signals

33%
5%
1d median
33%
10%
1d median
33%
15%
1d median
33%
20%
14d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.