Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

70
signals scored: 21.4%
reached +5%: 13
signal patterns

What the data shows

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

Short term Long term

Opened

1M 3M 6M 12M 24M All time

Size

All Mega Cap Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Micro Cap

From what funds paid

Any 5–15% 20–30% 35–50%

70 signals opened in the last month · Small Cap · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

2 signals

50%

6d median

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

8 signals

38%

2d median

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

8 signals

38%

2d median

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

6 signals

33%

2d median

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

6 signals

33%

2d median

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

54 signals

19%

5d median

10%

4d median

15%

5d median

20%

9d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

2 signals

–

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

2 signals

–

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.