Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

126
signals scored
49.2%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

126 signals opened in the last 3 months · Mid Cap · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
5d median
100%
10%
5d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

10 signals

70%
5%
6d median
10%
10%
7d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

19 signals

68%
5%
5d median
42%
10%
19d median
16%
15%
11d median
5%
20%
31d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

3 signals

67%
5%
8d median
67%
10%
15d median
67%
15%
18d median
67%
20%
18d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

5 signals

60%
5%
14d median
20%
10%
5d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

39 signals

56%
5%
12d median
36%
10%
26d median
15%
15%
22d median
5%
20%
33d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

50 signals

48%
5%
5d median
36%
10%
6d median
24%
15%
7d median
14%
20%
9d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

26 signals

46%
5%
6d median
19%
10%
6d median
12%
15%
10d median
8%
20%
12d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

26 signals

46%
5%
6d median
27%
10%
7d median
19%
15%
8d median
19%
20%
13d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

25 signals

44%
5%
5d median
32%
10%
8d median
24%
15%
11d median
20%
20%
9d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

1 signal

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

2 signals

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.