Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

831
signals scored
84.8%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

831 signals opened in the last 24 months · Mid Cap · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
5d median
100%
10%
5d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

4 signals

100%
5%
1d median
100%
10%
6d median
75%
15%
5d median
75%
20%
48d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

32 signals

97%
5%
8d median
94%
10%
16d median
91%
15%
25d median
84%
20%
32d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

51 signals

94%
5%
7d median
80%
10%
19d median
75%
15%
27d median
73%
20%
57d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

367 signals

90%
5%
7d median
86%
10%
19d median
81%
15%
32d median
77%
20%
46d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

147 signals

87%
5%
7d median
80%
10%
19d median
73%
15%
27d median
67%
20%
36d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

23 signals

87%
5%
7d median
83%
10%
22d median
78%
15%
36d median
74%
20%
49d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

21 signals

81%
5%
15d median
62%
10%
27d median
48%
15%
104d median
43%
20%
117d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

65 signals

78%
5%
5d median
69%
10%
10d median
65%
15%
20d median
57%
20%
21d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

131 signals

77%
5%
10d median
66%
10%
21d median
55%
15%
32d median
46%
20%
41d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

288 signals

77%
5%
11d median
65%
10%
25d median
51%
15%
33d median
41%
20%
47d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

68 signals

76%
5%
8d median
68%
10%
20d median
60%
15%
23d median
53%
20%
38d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

4 signals

50%
5%
3d median
50%
10%
4d median
50%
15%
4d median
50%
20%
7d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.