Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

489
signals scored
76.5%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

489 signals opened in the last 12 months · Mid Cap · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
5d median
100%
10%
5d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

18 signals

94%
5%
15d median
89%
10%
17d median
83%
15%
16d median
72%
20%
24d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

35 signals

91%
5%
6d median
71%
10%
19d median
66%
15%
24d median
63%
20%
26d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

18 signals

89%
5%
8d median
83%
10%
22d median
78%
15%
36d median
72%
20%
34d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

191 signals

82%
5%
8d median
74%
10%
19d median
67%
15%
26d median
62%
20%
43d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

92 signals

82%
5%
6d median
70%
10%
19d median
63%
15%
27d median
57%
20%
30d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

16 signals

75%
5%
15d median
50%
10%
50d median
38%
15%
107d median
31%
20%
76d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

51 signals

73%
5%
5d median
61%
10%
16d median
55%
15%
22d median
45%
20%
22d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

84 signals

70%
5%
9d median
55%
10%
22d median
42%
15%
34d median
30%
20%
49d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

47 signals

68%
5%
8d median
55%
10%
14d median
49%
15%
15d median
38%
20%
19d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

172 signals

67%
5%
12d median
50%
10%
24d median
37%
15%
30d median
27%
20%
36d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

3 signals

33%
5%
1d median
33%
10%
1d median
33%
15%
1d median
33%
20%
1d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.