Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

158
signals scored
82.9%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

158 signals opened in the last 24 months · Micro Cap · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

55 signals

100%
5%
7d median
100%
10%
12d median
98%
15%
26d median
98%
20%
35d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

42 signals

100%
5%
7d median
100%
10%
15d median
98%
15%
28d median
98%
20%
37d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
5d median
100%
10%
5d median
100%
15%
5d median
100%
20%
5d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

99 signals

75%
5%
11d median
69%
10%
18d median
55%
15%
25d median
49%
20%
30d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

6 signals

67%
5%
4d median
67%
10%
15d median
50%
15%
9d median
50%
20%
17d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

4 signals

50%
5%
11d median
50%
10%
30d median
25%
15%
27d median
25%
20%
63d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.