Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

114
signals scored
67.5%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

114 signals opened in the last 6 months · Large Cap · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

12 signals

83%
5%
13d median
75%
10%
35d median
50%
15%
37d median
33%
20%
32d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

8 signals

75%
5%
17d median
63%
10%
19d median
63%
15%
22d median
25%
20%
13d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

19 signals

74%
5%
13d median
42%
10%
20d median
37%
15%
39d median
32%
20%
52d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

31 signals

71%
5%
14d median
55%
10%
20d median
45%
15%
25d median
35%
20%
36d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

34 signals

71%
5%
12d median
65%
10%
15d median
56%
15%
20d median
35%
20%
26d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

15 signals

67%
5%
8d median
53%
10%
20d median
40%
15%
25d median
27%
20%
33d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

45 signals

64%
5%
7d median
53%
10%
13d median
40%
15%
29d median
33%
20%
36d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

47 signals

64%
5%
8d median
49%
10%
16d median
32%
15%
35d median
26%
20%
36d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

36 signals

61%
5%
10d median
44%
10%
20d median
31%
15%
39d median
25%
20%
39d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

31 signals

58%
5%
10d median
48%
10%
25d median
35%
15%
29d median
26%
20%
35d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

18 signals

56%
5%
11d median
33%
10%
21d median
28%
15%
39d median
17%
20%
19d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

4 signals

50%
5%
9d median
50%
10%
11d median
50%
15%
18d median
50%
20%
34d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

7 signals

43%
5%
2d median
43%
10%
3d median
14%
15%
3d median
14%
20%
3d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.