Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

302
signals scored
79.8%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

302 signals opened in the last 12 months · Large Cap · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

56 signals

88%
5%
11d median
82%
10%
19d median
73%
15%
23d median
66%
20%
40d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

58 signals

86%
5%
13d median
72%
10%
18d median
66%
15%
27d median
62%
20%
33d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

21 signals

86%
5%
20d median
76%
10%
26d median
71%
15%
31d median
48%
20%
41d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

83 signals

86%
5%
8d median
76%
10%
13d median
66%
15%
18d median
60%
20%
28d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

55 signals

82%
5%
7d median
69%
10%
11d median
64%
15%
15d median
53%
20%
16d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

126 signals

80%
5%
7d median
72%
10%
13d median
62%
15%
18d median
56%
20%
27d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

65 signals

80%
5%
14d median
68%
10%
22d median
52%
15%
31d median
34%
20%
41d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

23 signals

78%
5%
5d median
78%
10%
12d median
78%
15%
21d median
78%
20%
32d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

97 signals

77%
5%
7d median
70%
10%
16d median
64%
15%
20d median
60%
20%
27d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

128 signals

77%
5%
8d median
67%
10%
17d median
58%
15%
22d median
53%
20%
29d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

134 signals

75%
5%
7d median
69%
10%
14d median
61%
15%
20d median
57%
20%
29d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

15 signals

73%
5%
5d median
67%
10%
11d median
47%
15%
14d median
40%
20%
15d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

38 signals

71%
5%
8d median
61%
10%
25d median
53%
15%
28d median
47%
20%
36d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.