Signal backtest

90.1% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

20
signals scored: 30%
reached +5%: 13
signal patterns

What the data shows

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.7%.

Short term Long term

Opened

1M 3M 6M 12M 24M All time

Size

All Mega Cap Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Micro Cap

From what funds paid

Any 5–15% 20–30% 35–50%

20 signals opened in the last month · Large Cap · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

2 signals

50%

1d median

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

12 signals

50%

2d median

17%

10%

5d median

17%

15%

18d median

20%

15d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

9 signals

33%

1d median

11%

10%

6d median

11%

15%

9d median

11%

20%

15d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

6 signals

33%

1d median

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

6 signals

33%

1d median

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

10 signals

30%

1d median

10%

4d median

10%

15%

27d median

20%

–

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

5 signals

20%

1d median

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

2 signals

–

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

2 signals

–

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

2 signals

–

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

2 signals

–

10%

–

15%

–

20%

–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.