Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

4,262
signals scored
85.3%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

4,262 signals opened in the last 24 months · all sizes · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

181 signals

96%
5%
6d median
90%
10%
20d median
83%
15%
34d median
77%
20%
44d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

449 signals

92%
5%
11d median
84%
10%
31d median
76%
15%
55d median
69%
20%
78d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

331 signals

91%
5%
8d median
85%
10%
26d median
78%
15%
46d median
73%
20%
68d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

339 signals

91%
5%
9d median
84%
10%
24d median
76%
15%
44d median
69%
20%
63d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

668 signals

90%
5%
9d median
83%
10%
24d median
76%
15%
46d median
71%
20%
64d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

284 signals

89%
5%
10d median
80%
10%
22d median
73%
15%
39d median
63%
20%
55d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

677 signals

88%
5%
10d median
80%
10%
28d median
72%
15%
48d median
65%
20%
71d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

888 signals

88%
5%
10d median
80%
10%
28d median
73%
15%
46d median
66%
20%
67d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

1,927 signals

87%
5%
11d median
79%
10%
23d median
73%
15%
43d median
68%
20%
62d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

1,025 signals

85%
5%
11d median
78%
10%
29d median
72%
15%
47d median
66%
20%
68d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

514 signals

85%
5%
12d median
75%
10%
27d median
65%
15%
44d median
55%
20%
63d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

1,064 signals

83%
5%
13d median
72%
10%
27d median
62%
15%
41d median
53%
20%
56d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

111 signals

70%
5%
11d median
59%
10%
23d median
57%
15%
28d median
55%
20%
76d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.