Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

1,248
signals scored
84.8%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

1,248 signals opened in the last 24 months · Small Cap · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

31 signals

90%
5%
7d median
87%
10%
9d median
81%
15%
29d median
74%
20%
31d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

9 signals

89%
5%
4d median
67%
10%
26d median
67%
15%
51d median
56%
20%
42d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

227 signals

89%
5%
10d median
81%
10%
23d median
73%
15%
42d median
64%
20%
67d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

428 signals

88%
5%
10d median
79%
10%
26d median
72%
15%
40d median
64%
20%
58d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

753 signals

84%
5%
9d median
76%
10%
25d median
70%
15%
42d median
64%
20%
55d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

8 signals

75%
5%
4d median
75%
10%
7d median
50%
15%
18d median
25%
20%
15d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

29 signals

72%
5%
11d median
62%
10%
48d median
59%
15%
88d median
59%
20%
245d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

34 signals

65%
5%
10d median
56%
10%
29d median
53%
15%
59d median
53%
20%
168d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

7 signals

43%
5%
19d median
43%
10%
26d median
43%
15%
29d median
29%
20%
25d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.