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Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

655
signals scored
79.4%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

Short term Long term
Opened
1M 3M 6M 12M 24M All time
Size
All Mega Cap Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Micro Cap
From what funds paid
Any 5–15% 20–30% 35–50%

655 signals opened in the last 12 months · Small Cap · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

25 signals

88%
5%
7d median
84%
10%
9d median
76%
15%
27d median
68%
20%
29d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

117 signals

86%
5%
9d median
76%
10%
19d median
68%
15%
43d median
59%
20%
52d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

225 signals

86%
5%
8d median
76%
10%
18d median
69%
15%
32d median
60%
20%
43d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

399 signals

77%
5%
8d median
68%
10%
18d median
62%
15%
30d median
56%
20%
41d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

2 signals

50%
5%
4d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

4 signals

50%
5%
16d median
50%
10%
24d median
50%
15%
25d median
50%
20%
25d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

4 signals

50%
5%
7d median
50%
10%
13d median
25%
15%
20d median
0%
20%
–

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

9 signals

33%
5%
7d median
11%
10%
16d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

11 signals

27%
5%
7d median
9%
10%
16d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.