Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

217
signals scored
47%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

217 signals opened in the last 3 months · Mid Cap · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

6 signals

83%
5%
11d median
83%
10%
25d median
83%
15%
32d median
50%
20%
28d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

13 signals

62%
5%
6d median
31%
10%
15d median
31%
15%
19d median
23%
20%
30d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

25 signals

52%
5%
3d median
40%
10%
9d median
28%
15%
7d median
28%
20%
8d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

39 signals

51%
5%
7d median
36%
10%
17d median
28%
15%
18d median
15%
20%
20d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

69 signals

51%
5%
7d median
36%
10%
19d median
28%
15%
26d median
19%
20%
32d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

81 signals

48%
5%
5d median
28%
10%
11d median
21%
15%
13d median
16%
20%
14d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

32 signals

47%
5%
7d median
25%
10%
21d median
9%
15%
21d median
9%
20%
21d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

45 signals

31%
5%
5d median
11%
10%
21d median
7%
15%
21d median
7%
20%
21d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

12 signals

25%
5%
1d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.