Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

1,337
signals scored
83%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

1,337 signals opened in the last 24 months · Mid Cap · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

33 signals

91%
5%
13d median
82%
10%
25d median
76%
15%
34d median
70%
20%
39d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

689 signals

89%
5%
12d median
82%
10%
24d median
77%
15%
48d median
71%
20%
66d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

8 signals

88%
5%
3d median
88%
10%
18d median
88%
15%
40d median
88%
20%
40d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

15 signals

87%
5%
33d median
80%
10%
48d median
80%
15%
68d median
80%
20%
80d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

97 signals

81%
5%
9d median
75%
10%
18d median
66%
15%
34d median
64%
20%
47d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

57 signals

81%
5%
7d median
70%
10%
20d median
63%
15%
37d median
58%
20%
41d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

225 signals

80%
5%
13d median
71%
10%
37d median
65%
15%
60d median
59%
20%
83d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

175 signals

77%
5%
14d median
62%
10%
27d median
52%
15%
45d median
41%
20%
75d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

100 signals

76%
5%
11d median
65%
10%
24d median
53%
15%
48d median
46%
20%
55d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

362 signals

74%
5%
15d median
59%
10%
27d median
48%
15%
41d median
40%
20%
56d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

52 signals

71%
5%
7d median
62%
10%
20d median
62%
15%
27d median
60%
20%
41d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

23 signals

70%
5%
25d median
52%
10%
62d median
43%
15%
73d median
39%
20%
176d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.