Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

716
signals scored
74.9%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

716 signals opened in the last 12 months · Mid Cap · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

6 signals

100%
5%
9d median
100%
10%
25d median
100%
15%
46d median
100%
20%
51d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

14 signals

93%
5%
14d median
79%
10%
25d median
64%
15%
32d median
50%
20%
32d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

344 signals

82%
5%
9d median
73%
10%
20d median
66%
15%
35d median
59%
20%
47d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

5 signals

80%
5%
2d median
80%
10%
20d median
80%
15%
28d median
80%
20%
34d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

69 signals

75%
5%
7d median
67%
10%
14d median
57%
15%
22d median
55%
20%
28d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

42 signals

74%
5%
6d median
60%
10%
17d median
50%
15%
28d median
43%
20%
38d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

103 signals

71%
5%
13d median
55%
10%
27d median
41%
15%
41d median
30%
20%
50d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

65 signals

69%
5%
8d median
55%
10%
21d median
43%
15%
33d median
40%
20%
42d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

203 signals

67%
5%
12d median
52%
10%
26d median
41%
15%
38d median
34%
20%
45d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

102 signals

64%
5%
13d median
51%
10%
22d median
43%
15%
35d median
38%
20%
45d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

30 signals

60%
5%
4d median
47%
10%
19d median
47%
15%
22d median
43%
20%
40d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

6 signals

50%
5%
16d median
33%
10%
40d median
17%
15%
78d median
17%
20%
96d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.