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Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

5,559
signals scored
89.4%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

Short term Long term
Opened
1M 3M 6M 12M 24M All time
Size
All Mega Cap Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Micro Cap
From what funds paid
Any 5–15% 20–30% 35–50%

5,559 signals opened since 2013 · Mid Cap · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

85 signals

94%
5%
14d median
86%
10%
35d median
79%
15%
49d median
74%
20%
68d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

2,917 signals

92%
5%
13d median
87%
10%
29d median
82%
15%
53d median
77%
20%
74d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

64 signals

91%
5%
12d median
88%
10%
35d median
78%
15%
75d median
70%
20%
85d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

8 signals

88%
5%
7d median
63%
10%
84d median
63%
15%
84d median
63%
20%
84d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

1,017 signals

87%
5%
13d median
80%
10%
28d median
73%
15%
49d median
65%
20%
73d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

661 signals

87%
5%
13d median
78%
10%
32d median
70%
15%
56d median
61%
20%
87d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

315 signals

86%
5%
10d median
79%
10%
21d median
70%
15%
42d median
63%
20%
69d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

165 signals

86%
5%
10d median
78%
10%
30d median
70%
15%
63d median
65%
20%
78d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

1,397 signals

86%
5%
14d median
76%
10%
35d median
68%
15%
62d median
61%
20%
99d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

548 signals

84%
5%
14d median
77%
10%
32d median
68%
15%
55d median
59%
20%
74d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

228 signals

84%
5%
12d median
72%
10%
27d median
62%
15%
46d median
54%
20%
67d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

109 signals

83%
5%
10d median
78%
10%
23d median
72%
15%
32d median
67%
20%
40d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

222 signals

82%
5%
10d median
73%
10%
25d median
69%
15%
40d median
65%
20%
64d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.