Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

158
signals scored
77.8%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

158 signals opened in the last 24 months · Micro Cap · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

56 signals

100%
5%
7d median
98%
10%
15d median
98%
15%
39d median
95%
20%
44d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

35 signals

100%
5%
8d median
97%
10%
34d median
97%
15%
43d median
91%
20%
44d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
26d median
100%
10%
27d median
100%
15%
29d median
100%
20%
29d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

5 signals

100%
5%
5d median
100%
10%
22d median
100%
15%
29d median
100%
20%
29d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

91 signals

65%
5%
8d median
47%
10%
12d median
41%
15%
23d median
36%
20%
34d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

9 signals

56%
5%
10d median
33%
10%
12d median
22%
15%
46d median
11%
20%
13d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

4 signals

50%
5%
9d median
25%
10%
12d median
25%
15%
13d median
25%
20%
13d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.