Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

402
signals scored
79.4%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

402 signals opened in the last 6 months · Large Cap · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

28 signals

89%
5%
8d median
75%
10%
15d median
61%
15%
18d median
57%
20%
31d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

25 signals

88%
5%
7d median
72%
10%
12d median
48%
15%
18d median
40%
20%
25d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

99 signals

84%
5%
11d median
74%
10%
21d median
66%
15%
41d median
59%
20%
48d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

73 signals

84%
5%
9d median
71%
10%
22d median
62%
15%
36d median
52%
20%
57d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

70 signals

81%
5%
11d median
69%
10%
31d median
61%
15%
55d median
56%
20%
71d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

68 signals

81%
5%
10d median
71%
10%
15d median
47%
15%
24d median
37%
20%
32d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

123 signals

80%
5%
9d median
69%
10%
20d median
62%
15%
34d median
54%
20%
46d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

35 signals

80%
5%
9d median
66%
10%
20d median
60%
15%
36d median
46%
20%
70d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

179 signals

80%
5%
9d median
67%
10%
21d median
56%
15%
34d median
48%
20%
45d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

178 signals

78%
5%
10d median
68%
10%
23d median
62%
15%
39d median
56%
20%
55d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

124 signals

77%
5%
11d median
66%
10%
22d median
58%
15%
41d median
51%
20%
59d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

56 signals

73%
5%
8d median
63%
10%
17d median
57%
15%
33d median
52%
20%
49d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

13 signals

38%
5%
5d median
15%
10%
7d median
8%
15%
3d median
8%
20%
3d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.