Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

780
signals scored
82.4%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

780 signals opened in the last 12 months · Large Cap · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

48 signals

94%
5%
8d median
77%
10%
20d median
67%
15%
37d median
56%
20%
45d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

85 signals

87%
5%
12d median
65%
10%
20d median
56%
15%
38d median
42%
20%
56d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

201 signals

87%
5%
10d median
75%
10%
21d median
68%
15%
39d median
59%
20%
50d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

171 signals

86%
5%
12d median
73%
10%
35d median
61%
15%
60d median
50%
20%
78d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

244 signals

85%
5%
9d median
75%
10%
26d median
66%
15%
42d median
57%
20%
58d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

39 signals

85%
5%
8d median
74%
10%
15d median
56%
15%
28d median
41%
20%
42d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

360 signals

84%
5%
10d median
72%
10%
26d median
63%
15%
42d median
54%
20%
59d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

141 signals

84%
5%
9d median
71%
10%
26d median
61%
15%
40d median
50%
20%
61d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

380 signals

82%
5%
10d median
72%
10%
28d median
64%
15%
43d median
56%
20%
60d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

305 signals

82%
5%
10d median
69%
10%
28d median
59%
15%
47d median
49%
20%
69d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

119 signals

80%
5%
10d median
68%
10%
29d median
59%
15%
43d median
49%
20%
66d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

121 signals

79%
5%
15d median
71%
10%
28d median
50%
15%
36d median
36%
20%
48d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

16 signals

50%
5%
12d median
31%
10%
24d median
19%
15%
24d median
13%
20%
14d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.