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Signal backtest

90.1% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

48
signals scored
37.5%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.7%.

Short term Long term
Opened
1M 3M 6M 12M 24M All time
Size
All Mega Cap Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Micro Cap
From what funds paid
Any 5–15% 20–30% 35–50%

48 signals opened in the last month · Large Cap · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

12 signals

58%
5%
13d median
33%
10%
15d median
25%
15%
17d median
8%
20%
18d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

9 signals

56%
5%
14d median
11%
10%
21d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

16 signals

50%
5%
15d median
13%
10%
14d median
6%
15%
19d median
0%
20%
–

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

2 signals

50%
5%
13d median
50%
10%
18d median
50%
15%
21d median
0%
20%
–

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

18 signals

44%
5%
13d median
17%
10%
11d median
11%
15%
15d median
6%
20%
18d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

19 signals

42%
5%
12d median
16%
10%
11d median
11%
15%
16d median
5%
20%
18d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

19 signals

37%
5%
13d median
16%
10%
18d median
11%
15%
20d median
0%
20%
–

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

9 signals

33%
5%
12d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

4 signals

25%
5%
1d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

4 signals

25%
5%
19d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

8 signals

13%
5%
1d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

7 signals

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.